Climate Change

by: Prof. Kambiz Maani

Addressing climate change may be the most important problem the world will face in our lifetimes.

Anon

The evidence on the impacts of climate change on the environment, societies and businesses are compelling.  Changes to climate affect productivity and profitability of corporations and industries globally.   

Decisions and strategies related to climate change have been fraught with challenges and trade-offs. For example, biofuel is seen as an alternative source of energy.  However, planting for biofuel may require clearing of forests which reduce the absorption rate of greenhouse gasses (GHG), or use of scarce agricultural land which would increase poverty in less developed countries.

The uncertainty in climate change exacerbates the complexity of decision-making  which is caused by the number of the agencies involved and the stakeholders affected. As the stakeholders represent divergent views, backgrounds, assumptions and values, the key challenges for management and policy people is to first create a collaborative mindset and a sense of “common good” amongst the participants. This will facilitate development of a shared understanding of the complexities underlying decision making in climate change responses.

The question is then how to manage the uncertainty and complexity  and reaching  consensus on how to move forward. It is for these types of complex scenarios that new tools and models are required. As sustainable  strategies require the inclusion of economic, social and environmental factors, a systems level approach is necessary.

Complex “Wicked” Problems 

Climate change issues are recognized as “wicked” or complex problems. From both scientific and social viewpoints, this is a ‘new’ challenge requiring collective learning and new modes of decision- making and collaboration. 

The notion of “wicked” problem was first introduced by Horst Rittel in the 1960’s, but it has recently gained fresh attention and scientific treatment from the emerging field of Complexity Science.  Complex problems do not lend themselves to conventional expert-driven, single-focus and top-down approaches with the hope of quick and ‘optimal’ solutions. Here, the imperative for partnership at every level is paramount – between the private sector and government, the local and federal, the national and global, poor and rich, powerful and the disadvantage. This challenge is unprecedented in history. The response must shift us towards new and deeper forms of interacting and collective intelligence.

Decision Making for Wicked problems  

Decision making for climate change is a complex and dynamic process. Nevertheless, several studies show that most individuals and organizations lack the capability and inclination to deal with complexity.  Hence, counter-intuitive and counter-productive decision making abound in complex systems. As Herbert Simon, the economics and psychology Noble Laurette concluded, the decisions made in complex contexts, even with the best information and intentions, do not always result in favourable outcomes anticipated by decision makers. This is attributed, among other factors, to limited information processing ability, and misperception of dynamic feedback. The decision-making task becomes even more complex when decisions require the consensus and agreement of numerous stakeholders with divergent agendas, goals and motivations. 

Systems Thinking 

Systems Thinking is a scientific tool that presents a framework and ‘language’ for understanding complexity and creating consensus within multi-actor decision scenarios. Complex problems cannot be understood and ‘solved’ by a single agency, discipline or science.  Systems Thinking, as a language, provides practical tools and deep insights into how complex systems interact (non-linear feedback).  Systems Thinking helps uncover the underlying causes of the problem and helps create a shared understanding of the problem for all concerned. 

The Systems Thinking approach considers not only the problem content (technical), but the all-important context (i.e., organizational, social, political environment) that the problem manifests itself. 

Hence, it allows foreseeing the intended outcomes as well as unintended consequences of decisions, policies and interventions. 

Ultimately, the final arbiter for transformative change is a genuine realization and respect for the common good. In the climate change context, national self-interests and myopic solutions will be detrimental to all.  It is in this context that systems thinking aims for a holistic and transformative outcome.  

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The Hybrid Business Model & Systems Thinking

by: Monica Douglas

In combining the hybrid business model and systems thinking, we will be able to create needed sector change in the education system. Here is our rationale:

“Systems-thinking provides a framework to identify events that should be considered during risk assessment by (a) creating a map of the organization’s value chain that specifies relationships among the atomic components of the business model, and (b) using a taxonomy of categories to analyze those relationships and identify events that could threaten business process performance.” International Journal of Accounting Information Systems

“My favorite tool to support systems thinking in business is the multi-capital model used in integrated reporting. This model sees the key resources of a company as capital, including purpose, profit, people, property, partners and planet. Companies are stewards of their capital even though they don’t own most of it. The goal is sustainable value creation that enables a company to create value and profits today while also ensuring that they can do the same tomorrow.” Mary Adams

“A systems view of organizations leads to a different collection of problems to address. Traditionally, managers manage with output or financial data. Their view of the organization is thus conditioned by the data they use. Problems are thought of as variations from budget and such variations attract management attention. While such a view will show up problems of cost, the causes of costs is a different question and can only be addressed from a different perspective. Only a systems view will illuminate the opportunities and scope for improvement.” Professor John Seddon

“Many of the most important concepts underlying both the science of climate change and our responses to it can be understood using systems thinking concepts.  ‘Systems thinking’ approaches take a holistic, long-term perspective that focuses on relationships between interacting parts, and how those relationships generate behavior over time.” Professor Juliette N. Rooney-Varga

“With a hybrid model, you can deliver stability and efficiency, while also giving in to necessary risks that lead to innovation and competitive edge, the common results of responding quickly to change.” Heather Champoux

We know how urgent this is. Our business model is therefore built on partnership. We recognize that our success hinges on building a vibrant ecosystem.

So, we want to be invested in the success of each end user, developer, and partner we work with. At the foundation of it all is our belief that when we innovate for one, we all benefit.

This intersection of innovation and success will create tremendous opportunity for everyone in our ecosystem. It will be a virtuous cycle that keeps building on itself and giving back to itself.

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You mean it’s how we’re educated?

by: Monica Douglas

With an urgent emphasis on climate education via systems thinking, we are combining the most effective business and non-profit models to create systemic change in how we educate and how we fund this change. Here is why:

In 2018, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there were 14 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included 1 drought event, 8 severe storm events, 2 tropical cyclone events, 1 wildfire event, and 2 winter storm events. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 247 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. 

According to the World Health Organization, changes in our weather impacts everyone through social and environmental determinants of health- clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine conclude that climate change is an education issue.

However, it is not about being educated. It is about how we are educated. The Public School Review argues that the current focus on testing in both the national and state level is a detriment to the public education environment. This focus has led teachers to teach subjects in isolation and to continue to use the reductionist method due to time constraints.

A Hewlett Packard article states that reductionism is not functional. B.C. Goodwin believes that the reductionist method has failed us in our ability to understand complex matters and to respond appropriately.

We believe Systems Thinking is the solution. Dr. Terry Jackson writes, “Thinking from a system approach provides a better language and a more complete and holistic way of thinking. Its principles are a camera’s wide-angle lens. It gives us a better view on our ‘radar scope’ a more effective way of thinking, communicating, acting, and achieving superior results.”

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The missing ingredient in climate change mitigation

by: Monica Douglas

The idea for Dynamic Results Training and the forthcoming Foundation started with a webinar I organized and moderated for the Security and Sustainability Forum in June, 2017. Called “Teaching Systems Thinking to Fill the Climate Literacy Gap”, participants included Jeanette Murry, Senior Knowledge & Learning Coordination, Climate Change Strategy and Operations, World Bank; Christopher Boone, Dean of the School of Sustainability, Arizona State University; Leslie Mintz Tamminen, a Director of Seventh Generation Advisors; and Chip Comins, Chairman & CEO of the American Renewable Energy Institute. Chip Comins then convened a follow-up panel at the annual AREDAY summit a few weeks later, after which I ended up doing research on how to accelerate deployment of climate education.

After talking to business leaders, teachers and students, I noted the following:

Climate education is best via systems thinking. In a nutshell, this methodology helps to effectively deal with uncertainty and complexity as well as learn how to identify ‘leverage points’ for transformative change, while avoiding the unintended consequences of interventions.

The way we fund education has to “CHANGE”! We need to actively listen to those on the front line- the teachers, businesses and students themselves- and design our educational strategy based on what they need and prioritize.  

These two key points are driven by this: as evidence grows of the accelerating impacts of climate change, the business sector is urgently asking for a workforce better trained in the natural and social systems impacted by this change. Companies as diverse as Wal-Mart, Coca Cola and Pirelli Tires understand the benefits when current and prospective employees have a background in climate education through the lens of systems thinking. A study posted in the International Society of Sustainability Professionals highlights this. Maureen Kline, Director of Public Affairs and Sustainability, Pirelli Tire North America, sums it up this way:

“Within a company, it is impossible to implement an environmental strategy by relegating the task to one department working in a silo. An environmental strategy affects new product development, corporate reputation, employee retention and culture, consumer demand, cost of capital, insurance risk management, disaster preparedness and resilience, resource availability, operational efficiency, supply chain logistics, strategic direction and of course regulatory compliance. An environmental strategy isolated to only a few of these areas is ineffective.”

Furthermore, while funding for climate mitigation technology and climate policy has increased, investments in climate education and the systems that control deployment of this education have remained flat, according to a Congressional Research Service report. This flat funding has continued despite a 2015 Yale study that claims climate education is the strongest predictor of the action needed to prevent climate change.  As a result, educators at all levels lack validated educational materials to provide adequate climate training, educational designers lack the funding to provide the material, and implementers lack the systems required to deploy at the scale to make a difference nationally and globally. 

Our goal then at Dynamic Results Training & Foundation is to use a hybrid business model (a nonprofit and for profit under the same mission) with the aim of accelerating deployment of climate education via systems thinking for K-12, higher education and workforce development. Having joined me in this quest is Professor Maani, a 25 year veteran of teaching systems thinking to worldwide companies. It is with his passion and the urgency of dealing with the risk of extreme weather that we are starting off with his tailor made climate education via systems thinking for businesses.

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